| | June 20219CIOReviewLeaders who embrace a Continuous Foresight mindset build stronger, more innovative and more adaptable organizations- ultimately leading them to a preferable future Like many initiatives, there is a considerable risk of organizations practising pieces of Foresight in various silos. Lines of businesses, and multiple teams, tend to stay in their area of focus and ignore the rest of the organization. For example, IT leaders focus on technology disruptions and track them through their emerging tech radars and wheels, as well as, all too often start with the question ­ "how could my organization leverage x technology?" The assumption here is that the legal and compliance teams will focus on compliance disruptions (i.e., GDPR, CCPA), and the marketing team will focus on social ones. In the end, these disconnected efforts will lead towards a broader, disconnected future with higher levels of uncertainty. The road to digital disruption will ultimately be exasperated. The Four Steps of Continuous ForesightSo, how does this all work? Continuous Foresight can be broken down into four steps. It is critical to understand that these steps are not linear but rather ongoing and occurring continuously. Scouting - Start with a TAPESTRY analysis. This is Gartner's version of what is commonly referred to as "PEST," "STEEP," or "PESTEL" analysis. It is a framework that consists of the macro environmental factors that together create a comprehensive understanding of disruptions that organizations should be scanning and scouting. TAPESTRY (or more precisely, TPESTRE) is a rough acronym for the following factors: 1. Technology2. Politics3. Economy4. Social/cultural5. Trust/ethics6. Regulatory/legal7. Environment Synthesize ­ This step entails rationalizing all of the information together in a cohesive form to start navigating paths to success. Synthesizing includes (identifying?) emerging tech radars, emerging tech wheels, pattern recognition, and scenario planning. Advocate ­ Ensure you get buy-in and input from the rest of the team and broader organization on the actionable steps to move forward with. Design Thinking and Storytelling techniques (i.e., science fiction prototyping) are beneficial here. Prepare ­ Make decisions on when and where to act and begin the process or work back from a preferable future (backcasting). Without a plan of action, this exercise becomes meaningless. Roles within Continuous ForesightContinuous Foresight also provides a methodology to give leaders the ability to understand disruptive forces, make the hidden factors more visible, and illuminate obstacles and opportunities from "blind spots." But first, as a CIO or IT leader in enterprise architecture or innovation, you need to ask yourself what your role is going to be: STARGAZER - Uses Continuous Foresight methodologies, more so, out of interest than implementation, so fail to act on them. Innovator ­ Uses Continuous Foresight to come up with new and innovative business models. Bystander ­ Does not effectively use Continuous Foresight but rather sits back and watches the future go by, reacting only as needed. Master Builder ­ Leads the organization through architecting paths and steps to inventing and architecting preferable futures. Leaders who embrace a Continuous Foresight mindset build stronger, more innovative and more adaptable organizations- ultimately leading them to a preferable future. Gartner hosts a podcast exploring Continuous Foresight, which combines the best of Gartner's expertise. We interview experts and practitioners working in futurism, strategy, and Foresight. Discussing what works and what is hard, what skills are needed, what it takes to get buy-in. We want everyone to have the skills and vision to lead their organizations by continuously inventing the future. The podcast is here.
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