| | December 20209CIOReviewThese portfolio analytics help CIOs measure the trade-off between the funding ratio variability threshold and expected portfolio performance. The figure below illustrates how the optimal asset allocation and the corresponding portfolio horizon value change with the threshold. Starting from a relatively high threshold (e.g.,6%), as the threshold decreases (i.e., constraint becomes tighter), the total allocation to private assets decreases and the allocation to the hedging(or, "immunizing") asset increases. For example, moving from a 6% to a 2% funding ratio variability threshold, the allocation to private assets decreases from 31% to 8%, while the allocation to the hedging asset increases from 59% to 89%. This shift to the hedging asset decreases the expected portfolio horizon value by 27%, from $8,932m to $6,479m. This decline in horizon value as the funded status variability threshold tightens captures the "cost of constraints" which a CIO needs to know to make the best decision for their plan.Asset allocation analytics should let CIOs conduct "What-if" analyses to address special concerns. For example, a CIO considering a Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) transaction may impose a constraint on the maximum allocation to private assets. A 20% cap produces a large reduction in initial private asset allocation (e.g., from 31% to 11%, with a 6% variability threshold) to ensure that even after significant growth private assets will not exceed 20%. As another "What-if" example, a CIO may wish to express views on future private asset performance relative to public markets or their fund-selection skill. Optimal asset allocation will be sensitive to these views.Portfolio analytics incorporating the key characteristics of public and private assets can help solve for the optimal public vs. private asset allocation ­ as well as allocations within the public and private portfolios. These analytics capture the concern faced by end-state investors ­ "Maximize expected portfolio horizon value while keeping the plan's funded status sufficiently stable over the investment horizon."CIOs need to know the cost of imposing constraints to make more informed asset allocation decisions. Note: We assume the plan has an initial AUM of $10,000m and the present value of future benefit payments is $11,772m (based on a flat 3.9% discount rate) which gives an initial 85% funding ratio. There are five assets in the investment opportunity set: two public assets (a "low-risk" asset and a "high-risk" equity asset (i.e., S&P 500)) and three private assets (LP buyout private equity, mezzanine debt and real estate funds). The public low-risk asset is a fixed-income "hedging asset" meant to proxy a plan's hedging portfolio constructed to track the growth of the plan's present value of liabilities, with full flexibility to dynamically select and adjust individual underlying securities.CIOs need to know the tradeoff between portfolio performance and constraints to make more informed asset allocation decisions
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